What's Happening in Phoenix, Scottsdale & Paradise Valley Real Estate?

Real estate in the Valley of the Sun is dynamic! Miss a minute, miss a lot. Check back regularly to stay on the top of the latest affecting Metro Phoenix, including Phoenix, Scottsdale & Paradise Valley. Can't find what you're looking for here? Call, text or email me. I’ll help you find what you need.

 

Knowledge is power!

Sept. 18, 2012

Lending Standards: Too tight, too loose or just right?

I read an interesting article today put out by RISMedia, heavily loaded with quotes from Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (read it for yourself here).  He had some very valid points about current lending standards and the challenges borrowers faced when applying for mortgages.  He quoted historical data on default rates from the last decade as compared to during the boom, bust and even from a segment post 2009.  While the primary argument was that standards are too restrictive, based on an applicant's FICO score, I think there is more to it.

Simply put, I think underwriters and those creating guidelines are suffering from a lack of common sense.  Yes, I realize it sounds simplistic, but I've seen a number of situations over the last year that would indicate this. I've seen listings with property conditions that I personally wouldn't be comfortable selling to anyone get passed over by appraisers and underwriters AND values so far off base (high or low) that I'm not even sure I could rationalize a supposedly educated person could draw the conclusion. I've honestly seen borrowers so overqualified for financing, almost get denied despite high paying jobs & credit scores.  On the other hand, I've seen situations of borrowers sailing right through the approval process where the writing on the wall was fairly evident to me that they would default.  Lastly, I've seen mortgages that I don't believe serve anyone except the entity that holds the note- because they certainly don't always benefit the borrower and in fact, can really be a detriment to the borrower.  All of it is both baffling and maddening to me.

Case in point: I have a home under contract that will be purchased by my clients, buyers, with an FHA Renovation (203K Streamline) loan.  The home was built in the 70's and while it's in OK shape, there are many conditions that exist that I know would not fall under FHA guidelines, which pretty much stipulates that the home have basic minimal requirements (like a working stove and a water tight roof) and not have any health & safety hazards. Fortunately, my clients are using their renovation loan to make the majority of repairs, which will ultimately yield them about $20K in equity in the home when the work is complete.

However, as we are wrapping up the underwriting process, the underwriter is scrutinizing a costly repair to the rear patio/pool deck. For some reason, this repair was presented to the underwriter as a remedy to fix "cracks in the pool deck", which the underwriting team decided was frivolous and a "luxury item". What the underwriting team missed is the fact that aside from the cracks which, over time may become a hazard if the cracks become uneven, the real issue is the fact that the poor drainage on the pool deck is causing water to pond up against the side of the house- right at the only door to the rear yard. This is the real hazard. Imagine after a rain storm the homeowner walks outside with a handful of things and slips on the water on the deck or worse yet, they are holding something that has an electrical current- ZAAAAP!!!! (electrocution hazard). Besides that, it's never a good idea for water to stand up against the home because it could negatively impact the structure over time.

Despite pictures of the water ponding on the deck in the appraisal report, the Appraiser failed to call out this condition that does not meet FHA guidelines, even though it was documented independently in the inspection report and in photos the concerned homeowner took of the rear patio to document the situation.  Here are a few of the home buyer's photos that went to the underwriting team for review:

[gallery link="file" columns="2"]

After preparing a report and including the pictures from the general inspection, the appraisal report and my client's photos to plead the case for the money to be granted to the borrowers to complete the repair, the underwriting team decided that 1) the property quality may not meet FHA guidelines, 2) there must be a plumbing problem and 3) Perhaps the inspector isn't properly educated on how to inspect homes.

I won't comment any further about this situation, but it may be clear that perhaps the powers that be who will make the decision aren't fully aware of how to assess a property's ability to meet guidelines and those who they rely upon also aren't fully versed on what guidelines are that they are supposed to follow...

At the end of the day, my goal isn't to demonize every underwriter and appraiser out there- there are definitely those in both groups who are so attuned to what's happening in the marketplace and very geared to do the right thing.  Sadly, due to undue influence or force by higher powers, some of the "good guys" have to deviate from their standards.  I've seen the process go flawlessly too, though I feel as though many times I wish it I saw those instances more commonly than I do now.  Maybe the system isn't broken, but it's suffering from a bad cold or hangover that will resolve itself someday.  We can only hope that as the recovery continues and the process is refined further, that the corrections will force the pendulum to have much less of a swing in either direction and a focus on some sort of standard, with a process to address deviations- because they always occur.

In the meantime, may common sense prevail, may "good borrowers" continue to have a shot at home ownership and those who just aren't "good borrowers" yet,  someday figure out what they will need to do to become just that if they so choose.

Aug. 31, 2012

More Short Sales with Law Extension Through 2013?

Check out the article in today's LA Times here: http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20120812,0,7914990.story

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act may be extended if the bi-partisan Senate Finance Committee is successful with getting their bill through the Senate and House. The impact of a change like this means that homeowners currently in the process of or considering a short sale for a primary residence could have the tax liability of their forgiven amounts also forgiven, because the legislation amends the tax code. In simple terms: If you owe $300K on your mortgage and as part of a short sale a $100K deficiency (difference between the amount owed & the bank payoff) resulted, that $100K, considered taxable "personal income", would also be forgiven.

Other rules apply:

  • Property must be a primary residence
  • The loan(s) on the house have to have been obtained to purchase the home (called "purchase money"); no home equity lines or "cash out" refi's
  • Forgiveness for up to $2M if married, filing jointly, or $1M filing separately

Many who had been considering short sales, but stopped due to time constraints of the laws coming expiration date on 12/31/12, may be in luck if the law is extended.  This is really huge for homeowners looking to avoid the large double-whammy with the subsequent tax bill after completing a short sale.

If you would like me to keep you posted on the progress of this bill, please contact me and I'll do it!

Have a safe & happy Labor Day weekend!!

June 19, 2012

Exclusive DC Ranch Patio Home- Upgraded to the Nines! (Scottsdale, AZ)

FIRST home in MLS for lease in this intimate gated patio home community. Chef's kitchen gleams with full suite of Viking appliances, large center island, rich cabinetry & desk nook. Very livable split master floorplan w/formal living/dining rooms, den & family room adjacent to kitchen/breakfast nook. Generous Master Ste boasts dual sinks, separate tub & snail shower & outfitted walk-in closet. Additional Bedroom has ensuite bath. Gorgeous powder room w/stone wainscoting. Stunning exotic tile/stone work, rich wood cabinetry, plantation shutters & designer flooring throughout. Paver patios off the Master/Family Room & Living/Dining Rooms. Rear patio also features a gas fire pit. End unit w/large grassy areas on 3 sides for utmost privacy. Pools & Fitness Ctr  are just across the way at the Desert Camp Community Center, while shopping & dining at Market Street are just minutes away. This is the ULTIMATE in lock-n-leave living and is not to be missed!!

Posted in Featured, For Rent
June 10, 2012

ARMLS: Active 10,034 listings in Maricopa County

Latest numbers for Sunday 6/10/2012 (All Maricopa County, AZ)

ARMLS

  • Active: 10,014 (0% change from 5/25/12)
  • Active (Single-Family): 7,827 (0% change from 5/25/12)
  • AWC/Pending (Single-Family Under Contract): 15,035 (-4.3% from 5/25/12)
  • Active (Condo/Patio Home/Townhome/Loft): 1,674 (-1.1% from 5/25/12)

The Bottom Line: There are 92% more Single Family homes under contract than actively listed in Maricopa County! There is still more demand than supply, from on a broad (macro) county level. On a micro level the ratio of supply and demand varies with factors like Location & Price. Pending home sales is decreasing slightly- this indicates that demand is slowing in the marketplace which I believe is due to factors like the hotter weather and investors who are not able to acquire at rock-bottom prices and ultimately lease out or flip properties for the same returns as they could even 3-6 mos ago.

Again all signals point to the end of the investor buying spree. ***INVESTORS: Beware, your returns are shrinking. Be very careful as you calculate your ROI when adding to your income property portfolios.  As inventory whittles away and prices rise, profits are decreasing, making rental income properties less attractive portfolio additions. Warning bells should be going off for investors- this is the point that the smart investors/speculators stepped out buying during the housing boom. It was those late to jump on the band wagon who got burned- bad.

***BUYERS: pay attention here- this may signal a green light for those of you fed up of getting beat out by investors' cash offers.  Because the absorption rate (rate at which listed homes are being sold) has decreased slightly, if investors continue to make an exodus from the buying pool, Buyers could have less competition. Now, there are only 549 single-family homes in all of Maricopa County under $100,000, up from 492 on 5/25/12. This looks a little better if you're willing to add all other kinds of homes to the mix- 1421, up from 1,344.  As these numbers increase if investors are on a break, does this open the door again for entry buyers in of the buying pool?

The median home price is still on the rise. ***SELLERS: again- if you bought in 2004 or earlier OR bought in 2009 or later you are in a good equity position. You bought before the market peaked and after it spiraled downward. There is a very good chance that you have equity in your homes, enough to sell without having to sell short (do a "short sale").  Perhaps if you've been sitting on th side lines waiting for a better day to sell (move out of state, down-size or move up), now might be the time.

Going back to BUYERS, because interest rates are even lower than they were before (still baffling to me...) you have even more buying power. Continue to watch rates and check with your mortgage professional (contact me for a list of qualified professionals) to know how much you an afford with current interest rates.

Want to get even more granular? Consider these stats:

  • There are only 55  homes listed in Scottsdale under $100,000 (only 1 is single-family)
  • There are 225 single-family homes listed in Scottsdale under $250,000 (shrinking), but only 76 have 3BR or more
  • There are 271 single-family homes listed in the town of Paradise Valley (shrinking), but the least expensive single-family in TPV (Proper) will cost you- $624,900
  • There are 273 single-family homes listed in Phoenix under $100,000 (up by 50 in 2 weeks)

The really big picture: Scottsdale stands tall as demand stays strong.  There is a little bit more inventory to work with in Phoenix for now, but how long will this last and will additional homes come up? The SE Valley remains a hot spot with homes going in hours for multiples (10s) offers & the West Valley is not far behind.

Please contact me directly for more details as they relate to your needs and your area!!

Posted in News
May 25, 2012

ARMLS: Active 10,014 listings in Maricopa County

Latest numbers for Friday 5/25/2012 (All Maricopa County, AZ)

ARMLS

  • Active: 10,014 (-40.3% from 2/21/12)
  • Active (Single-Family): 7,794 (-40.3% from 2/21/12)
  • AWC/Pending (Single-Family Under Contract): 15,711 (-8.2% from 2/21/12)
  • Active (Condo/Patio Home/Townhome/Loft): 1,693 (-32.5% from 2/21/12)

The Bottom Line: There are 102% more Single Family homes under contract than actively listed in Maricopa County! There is more demand than supply if you look at this on a broad (macro) county level. On a micro level the ratio of supply and demand varies with factors like Location & Price. Note the decrease in pending home sales- this is a large indicator of what is happening in our market place and is affected by things like seasonality (hey- it's getting hot here!).

This also signals that perhaps the buying spree many investors had been on may be coming to an end. ***INVESTORS: Beware, your returns are likely going to start shrinking. Be very careful as you calculate your ROI when adding to your income property portfolios As inventory whittles away and prices rise, the HUGE profits they were banking on may not be there, making rental income properties in their investment portfolio less attractive. Alarm bells should be going off now because this is the point that the smart investors/speculators stepped out buying during the housing boom. It was those late to jump on the band wagon who got burned- bad.

***BUYERS: pay attention here- this may signal a green light for those of you fed up of getting beat out by investors' cash offers.  Because the rate at which homes are being gobbled up could go down, if investors segue out of the buying pool, that means you could have less competition. Now, there are only 492 single-family homes in all of Maricopa County under $100,000. This looks a little better if you're willing to add all other kinds of homes to the mix- 1,344.  As this number shrinks away, it will put a lot of entry buyers out of the buying pool.

On the flip side, the median home price is rising. ***SELLERS: pay attention here- if you bought in 2004 or earlier OR bought in 2009 or later you are in a good position. You bought before the market peaked and after it spiraled downward. There is a very good chance that you have equity in your homes, enough to sell without having to sell short (do a short sale).  Perhaps if you've been waiting to sell to move out of state, down-size or move up, now might be the time.

Going back to BUYERS, because interest rates are even lower than they were before (still baffling to me...) you have even more buying power. A buyer I started working with earlier this year was looking at a 4.25-4.5% interest rate with 5% down, which would have capped her out at $110,000. Now because rates have dropped into the 3.75-3.875% range, her new limit is about $125,000.

 

Want to get even more granular? Consider these stats:

  • There are only 60 homes listed in Scottsdale under $100,000
  • There are 250 single-family homes listed in Scottsdale under $250,000, but only 49 have 3BR or more
  • There are 281 single-family homes listed in the town of Paradise Valley, but the least expensive single-family in TPV (Proper) will cost you- $625,000
  • There are 223 single-family homes listed in Phoenix under $100,000

 

The really big picture: We've gobbled up most of the inventory that distressed our market at a housing market peak of 58,195 in November 2011 and we're not too far off from the low point of inventory at the peak of the boom of 8,611 in March 2005. Keep your chin up- the light at the end of the looooong tunnel is shining brightly.

Please contact me directly for more details as they relate to your needs and your area. TGIF!!

Posted in News
April 26, 2012

2BR Condo in Amenity-Loaded Scottsdale Shadows near Fashion Sq. (Scottsdale, AZ)

Cheerful, corner unit in guard-gated Scottsdale Shadows. 1st time for sale on MLS! Lovingly used as a winter residence for years & pride of ownership shows! Living Rm overlooks lighted tennis courts & has peekaboo views of Camelback Mtn. One BR faces lushly landscaped common areas & the other faces the closest of 3 pools. All utilities EXCEPT plug-ins are included w/HOA fees. Unit is in the center of community & a short walk to MANY amenities including: 9-hole Golf Course, Library, Art/Ceramics Studio, Game Rm/Lounge, Woodshop 2 add'l Heated Pools & Spa, Mens/Womens Fitness Ctr & social activities. Garage space is THISCLOSE to the elevator & Chartered Bus stops just outside YOUR building to take you around town. Have the lifestyle you want in a convenient location at a price you'll LOVE!!

Posted in Featured, For Sale
March 30, 2012

Turn-key 3BR+ Den Home w/Pool in Mercury Mine Elementary District (Phoenix, AZ)

Why live on the edge of town when you can be in the heart of it all? Turn-key home with 3BR + Den, 2 Baths & 2-Car Garage, just minutes to freeways, shopping, great schools and more. Kitchen has an island w/breakfast bar & granite counters and eat-in nook. Thoughtful Great Room Floorplan. Master has separate tub & shower. Tile flooring throughout the high-traffic areas. Built in '96 with tile roof. Generous, covered rear patio, sparkling pool and grassy rear yard make it ideal for enjoying the hot summer months. Professionally landscaped yards with mature citrus trees. Great NE Phoenix location with coveted Mercury Mine/Shea Middle/ Shadow Mountain schools. Walk to great dining options, neighborhood groceries & other shopping just minutes away! This is a CAN'T MISS! Interior photos to come soon. Call before it hit the MLS!!

 

Posted in Featured, For Sale
March 14, 2012

Leasing Your Home May Be a Profitable Option to Selling

For Lease/ For RentWith the sheer volume of homeowners who have either short sold, or lost homes to deeds in lieu of foreclosure or actual foreclosure, there are more renters than there have been in a long time looking for suitable homes to live in.  To add to that, with so many homes tied up in various states of foreclosure and/or disrepair, vacancy rates nationwide are decreasing along with the rise in rental rates.

According to Zillow, 69% of metro areas surveyed in their ZRI (zillow rent index), saw year-over-year gains in rental rates. That means it's becoming a "Landlord's Market", if it isn't one already, like it is here in the Metro Phoenix Area.  Homeowners who are unable to sell, but wary of going the short sale route may be able to fare well and cover the costs of their mortgage and maintenance expenses if they opted to lease out their homes.

Rental rates have been on the rise for the last couple of years. Borrowers who couldn't cover the payments on their adjustable rate mortgages that spiraled upward or suffered a loss of income can more easily afford rental rates for various houses and will stay put as dream tenants for a year or two (or three!), while their credit is in repair.  This is a bright spot in what has otherwise been gloomy housing market for the past several years.

Read more about these details at zillow: http://www.dsnews.com/articles/rent-on-rise-as-home-prices-fall-2012-03-13

If you live in the Phoenix/Scottsdale Metro area and would like to analyze whether leasing your home instead of selling it may be an option for you, please call me and I'll be happy to do a rental analysis for your home/area for you.

 

Feb. 21, 2012

ARMLS: Active 16,772 listings (All Maricopa Cty)

Latest numbers for Tuesday 2/21/2012 (All Maricopa County, AZ)

ARMLS

  • Active: 16,772
  • Active (Single-Family): 13,057
  • AWC/Pending (Single-Family Under Contract): 17,113
  • Active (Condo/Patio Home/Townhome/Loft): 2,509

The Bottom Line: There are 52% more Single Family homes under contract than actively listed; There is more demand than supply if you look at this on a broad (macro) county level. On a micro level the ratio of supply and demand varies with factors like Location & Price.  Please contact me directly for details as they relate to your area.

Posted in News
Feb. 2, 2012

SRP Construction project to cause service outages

Got a message this morning from the AZ Dept of Real Estate (ADRE) that an upcoming construction project intended to improve service in the area will cause outages. The project is tentatively scheduled for the week of 1/30 (this week). Here is their message:

SRP is indicating that they expect many outages on this job since crews will be unable to feed customers from another direction; however, at this time SRP will notify businesses in advance of any planned outage. Residents will receive notification of an outage longer than 15 minutes.

Take away: Don't procrastinate! (that or go get stuff done in an area serviced by APS). ;)

Posted in News