Real estate & real living in the Valley of the Sun
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ARMLS: Active 10,034 listings in Maricopa County

Latest numbers for Sunday 6/10/2012 (All Maricopa County, AZ)

ARMLS

  • Active: 10,014 (0% change from 5/25/12)
  • Active (Single-Family): 7,827 (0% change from 5/25/12)
  • AWC/Pending (Single-Family Under Contract): 15,035 (-4.3% from 5/25/12)
  • Active (Condo/Patio Home/Townhome/Loft): 1,674 (-1.1% from 5/25/12)

The Bottom Line: There are 92% more Single Family homes under contract than actively listed in Maricopa County! There is still more demand than supply, from on a broad (macro) county level. On a micro level the ratio of supply and demand varies with factors like Location & Price. Pending home sales is decreasing slightly- this indicates that demand is slowing in the marketplace which I believe is due to factors like the hotter weather and investors who are not able to acquire at rock-bottom prices and ultimately lease out or flip properties for the same returns as they could even 3-6 mos ago.

Again all signals point to the end of the investor buying spree. ***INVESTORS: Beware, your returns are shrinking. Be very careful as you calculate your ROI when adding to your income property portfolios.  As inventory whittles away and prices rise, profits are decreasing, making rental income properties less attractive portfolio additions. Warning bells should be going off for investors- this is the point that the smart investors/speculators stepped out buying during the housing boom. It was those late to jump on the band wagon who got burned- bad.

***BUYERS: pay attention here- this may signal a green light for those of you fed up of getting beat out by investors’ cash offers.  Because the absorption rate (rate at which listed homes are being sold) has decreased slightly, if investors continue to make an exodus from the buying pool, Buyers could have less competition. Now, there are only 549 single-family homes in all of Maricopa County under $100,000, up from 492 on 5/25/12. This looks a little better if you’re willing to add all other kinds of homes to the mix- 1421, up from 1,344.  As these numbers increase if investors are on a break, does this open the door again for entry buyers in of the buying pool?

The median home price is still on the rise. ***SELLERS: again- if you bought in 2004 or earlier OR bought in 2009 or later you are in a good equity position. You bought before the market peaked and after it spiraled downward. There is a very good chance that you have equity in your homes, enough to sell without having to sell short (do a “short sale”).  Perhaps if you’ve been sitting on th side lines waiting for a better day to sell (move out of state, down-size or move up), now might be the time.

Going back to BUYERS, because interest rates are even lower than they were before (still baffling to me…) you have even more buying power. Continue to watch rates and check with your mortgage professional (contact me for a list of qualified professionals) to know how much you an afford with current interest rates.

Want to get even more granular? Consider these stats:

  • There are only 55  homes listed in Scottsdale under $100,000 (only 1 is single-family)
  • There are 225 single-family homes listed in Scottsdale under $250,000 (shrinking), but only 76 have 3BR or more
  • There are 271 single-family homes listed in the town of Paradise Valley (shrinking), but the least expensive single-family in TPV (Proper) will cost you- $624,900
  • There are 273 single-family homes listed in Phoenix under $100,000 (up by 50 in 2 weeks)

The really big picture: Scottsdale stands tall as demand stays strong.  There is a little bit more inventory to work with in Phoenix for now, but how long will this last and will additional homes come up? The SE Valley remains a hot spot with homes going in hours for multiples (10s) offers & the West Valley is not far behind.

Please contact me directly for more details as they relate to your needs and your area!!


Camille Swanson, REALTOR®
Call (602) 810-1750 Direct
(480) 998-0676 Office
camille@camilleswanson.com

6263 N. Scottsdale Rd. #140
Scottsdale, AZ 85250

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"Despite an upward trend in permits, we are unlikely to see affordable supply growing in the short or medium term, unless we start to redefine our thoughts about what is affordable: $300,000, or maybe even $350,000." - The Cromford Report 3/12/18

I've NEVER been a hard sell agent. I give you good info. You use it to make good decisions. If you're buying a home under $300K this spring in Metro Phoenix, carefully ingest this info. Then CALL ME to create a plan. YES- you need a plan. **This is one of the most competitive markets I've seen in years.**
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