Just about 3 years ago, nearly to the day, a few of my blog posts started with ARMLS: Active XX,XXX listings in Maricopa County. Oddly enough, the changes in our market today are enough to warrant a similar title. No, we're not quite back to levels of inventory that low, but the trend is becoming louder & louder...

The decline is not as steep as the rapid drop in inventory in the Phoenix Metro Area that took place from March-September 2011, but the difference is that in June 2012 or even June 2013 the seasonality of our market kicked in and inventory started to pick up. In both of those years, inventory levels hit a low and started increasing between 6/1 & 6/15. That does not seem to be the case today.

The last time inventory fell through June was in 2011, when our active listing inventory fell 43% from 2/19-8/20. Only time will tell whether this drop in active listings will keep going or level off sometime in the near future, but I'm certainly curious to see where it goes... But for now, as "Days on Market" decrease and List Prices increase, we'll see how that affects Buyer Demand. Active listing counts have been trending downward since peaking in March 2014 at 22,718 and are now down 27% to 16,586. That's a pretty significant drop. Pay attention to the Cromford Report 14-Major City chart and see how this is shaking out near you to see whether now is the time to sell your home. Call me if you can't wait for the next report and I'll tell you all about your options today!

Related:

Deal Breakers that Get in the Way of Buying the "Perfect" House

The Downside of Making a Lowball Offer in a Seller's Market

The "Core" of the Phoenix Metro is Still the Place to Be

Yesterday afternoon I patted myself on the back for negotiating the sweetest deal in the Willo Historic District for some clients. It was on a lot and a half (12,000SF) so there would be room for their boys to play, a future pool addition AND a future home addition. It had a 2-car garage! There was no funky guest house and it had "good bones". It was a no-brainer conventional loan with a large down payment, no concessions and a 30-day close. Easy deal. What could go wrong...

On the way out, my clients met some of the neighbors who they chatted with. I always suggest that buyers learn as much as they can about any neighborhood where they're considering making a purchase. In conversation, it came up that the neighbor to the east has a large number of cats. Their initial thought was more curiosity than anything and the wife went to investigate for herself by ringing the doorbell to introduce herself and try to make friends with the neighbor.

This woman was very warm to my clients, but my client did notice several cats about. She asked questions about the cats and whether the cats were out and about regularly or went into the yard. The neighbor's responses were vague- not implying that anything was out of the ordinary.

At one point, the sweet old lady made the comment, "I don't care what anyone says, he (the seller) is not moving because of these cats. He just moves every few years." It was an odd statement considering that the seller had lived in the house for 11 years. Another thing the 1st set of neighbors said to my clients was that the seller had taken some of her beloved cats out to the desert (purely hearsay- can't be confirmed).

My clients weren’t completely dissuaded, but weren’t convinced it was no big deal either. I spoke with them about their concerns and discussed options to figure out how to proceed. I honestly had never encountered a "Cat Lady" house to this magnitude, so I advised the buyers to continue to do their due diligence- play Sherlock Holmes, talk to anyone and everyone in/around the house & neighborhood, call the Willo Neighborhood Association, Google it, etc.

Determined to get more info, I reached out to my colleagues in local, closed Facebook REALTOR group asking if anyone else had any similar experiences to share with helpful suggestions. I got lots of opinions and insight. Here's what I heard back:

• "Sprinkle cayenne pepper all around the yard. The cats will avoid your house like the plague."
• "Neighborhood cats here have sprayed my front door, garage door, ruined multiple patio cushions, mate on my waterfall, crap in the yard, drink out of my pool.. that is 6 of them that belong to different people."
• "Glad they found out now, then after they closed. We have a cat we adore, but there are some cats that come into backyard lately and sprayed on our brand new patio cushions, urgh!"
• "Oh, no!!!! If it's like a tenant of ours who let the cats destroy the place, and yes, you CAN smell that horrible stench outside of the house! And not only that, you get to hear the cats all night long.... Oh, so glad they found out while they have a chance to run the other way!!"

Another agent sent me a private message:

"Read your post on the Willow Cat Women. I'm a third generation Roosevelt District resident. My family has been in our house since the early 30s. That said, keep in mind every neighborhood has "one of those neighbors." Historic neighborhoods have had them for decades. Willow is one of the more preferred of the districts.

If your buyers plan on living for the long term they should buy. Eventually the nuisances eventually move or die. This appears harsh and callous but is true. We've had plenty of them during the roughly 80 years we've been here. It took a long time for this area to return to where it is now. Not likely to devolve into its previous less-than-desirable neighborhood it once was. And keep in mind Willow residents are very active in keeping their streets and homes in the best of conditions. Hope this helps."

I shared every last comment with them. The wife called the Neighborhood Association office and mentioned her concerns to see if the association was aware of or familiar with the house and owner. The person she spoke to was… I believe the phrase she uttered was "oh... that house." On the way home from work, the husband drove by the house to see whether he saw cats all over the place and opted to drive in the alley behind the house to get a different perspective.

During 4 separate showings on different days, we really only saw 1 big black cat on 2 different occasions. My client stopped to take a look over the wall and saw 12 cats laying about sunning themselves and walking around. That's just what he saw... and then the smell was a bit uncomfortable to him. Despite a very public “Trap, Neuter, Return” (TNR) program effort in the Willo Historic District, it was just more than they wanted to take on themselves.

As painful as it was to give up on "the dream" I pulled the plug at 7:30P last night, sending the agent this written message, "We wish it could be different, but they had so many dreams for this house that didn’t include the potential of having a lot of furry guests. We wish you and the seller the best of luck with the sale and know that someone else will see the value to move past the cats and buy it." C'est la vie. There's always another one.

The takeaway: You can fix a house- make it pretty, change the yard, or the kitchen. You cant change the neighbors, the busy street nearby or bus stop on the corner, the power lines behind the house or the apartment or office building hovering above the backyard.

What drives you to buy a home may not be in your best interests. That's why there's a due diligence period (10 days is standard). It's not just about inspecting the roof for leaks or checking the plumbing lines- there is so much more that goes into making a house a home. You have to decide what you can live with and what is a deal-breaker, but you have to do all of this BEFORE you sign on the dotted line and move in. It doesn't matter what anyone else likes, YOU have to live there and pay for it.

This weekend, think about the things that you love and hate about your home and think about whether if you had to do it again whether you would have made the same choices... TGIF!

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The "Core" of the Phoenix Metro is Still the Place to Be

Phoenix Home Prices Finally Rising Following Increased Demand?

Memorial Day is a time to remember the people who serve our country, those who have fallen in battle, time with family & friends & the start of summer. When I put my newest listing in MLS on Saturday at midnight, I hardly expected to have my first showing a mere 10 hours later. My seller was ecstatic! The kitchen remodel she chose to do prior to listing had dragged on way too long, but it was paying off.

***Buyers, I'm going to pause right here and speak directly to you... know your market. Just as I tell Sellers to know their competition, you should know who yours are. What are the potential roadblocks to keep you from buying your next home? If you don't know what they are, you just might miss out on a good home. If you're buying in a "Seller's Market", be very aware of this... let me get back to my story.***

With tons of comps in our favor because we were listing at the end of the "typical" spring season, I wasn't expecting multiple offers and tons of buyer traffic that my colleagues with listings nearby had experienced, but for a completely updated home in the center of highly desirable Scottsdale, 85254, I did expect good traffic and a few serious buyers.

I got an offer on day 3- Memorial Day Monday. The offer was all cash and from a trust that was buying a home for a son. The offer was fair, but it came in $65K LESS than asking (what?!!). My seller didn't get flustered or offended, but she was adamant that no way, no how would she ever consider selling at that price. We planned to counter.

Within a few hours of receiving that offer, I went to a previously-scheduled showing to another buyer who had contacted me weeks before after seeing my "coming soon" sign out front. Within an hour of that showing, another agent showed it to his clients too.

As a courtesy I told both the buyer and other agent about my other offer to make sure that they were aware of it in case they had interest. This gave them an opportunity to act if they were inclined to because I had not yet fully reviewed the offer with my client. The agent said his clients were interested and would write and send an offer. This offer came in about 12 hours later, it too is all cash and very clean, but it is $55K higher.

Which one do you think my seller wants?

The caution I give every buyer making an offer in a market that favors sellers is this: if you come in low, you leave the door open for every other buyer out there who might possibly want this home. Sellers want every penny that they can eek out from a sale. If a better offer comes in, you had better be prepared to "put up or shut up". You may even need to learn the hard way and lose a few homes in the process.

Ask yourself "How disappointed would I be if I lost this house"? Then if you are willing to pay closer to list price, ask yourself how disappointed you'd be if you didn't get it because you blew your opportunity to present that number to the seller? Are you willing to risk losing this house because it's going to take longer to negotiate? I get it- you don't want to pay more than you have to, but how much time and money will you lose waiting for the next "right house" to come up again?

Food for thought...

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Q1 2015 Phoenix & Scottsdale Real Estate Market Recap

It's interesting to me that for the last week or so, the Cromford Report has been putting out statistics analyzing everything from where the most expensive homes are being sold, to where most homes between $200-400K are selling. The common denominator of all of these charts, data and analysis seems to be location. Yes- the first rule of real estate.

Even with low gas prices, Phoenicians resoundingly head into the "Core" of the Metro area which is heavily weighted to homes inside the loop 101 and north of the 101 Loop. I'd also include areas that are north of the 60FWY from east to west within the 101 Loop, which would include Tempe, parts of Chandler & Ahwatukee. When you consider that most of the areas business centers, including Downtown & Midtown Phoenix, The Biltmore/Camelback Corridor Area, Downtown/Old Town Scottsdale, Scottsdale Airpark among other areas are inside this area, it becomes a little easier to envision. After years of commutes to far out-reaching areas like Avondale, Buckeye & Queen Creek, it appears that many people have simply decided they don't want to spend their money or their time commuting and this is starting to manifest itself in our real estate market stats.

Here are a few stats I saw and the ones most worth noting. I've shaded all of the zip codes with a large portion of their area inside the "Core" of our metro area. This chart shows single family homes between $200-400K with the least inventory: (5/11/15)

With the exception of Chandler, 85224 & Mesa, 85202, which are both just outside the boundaries I mentioned, the 10 of the 20 zip codes with the least inventory all lie within this "Core" area. As you head further down the list, for the next 10 zips, another 4 homes would fall into the this area also.

Conversely, all but 2 of the zip codes with the most inventory, fall outside of the "Core"- Phoenix, 85007, & Phoenix 85022. The 85007 zip code starts at the top of some of the most established historic districts and includes the Encanto-Palmcroft, Fairview & FQ Story Districts. The gorgeous historic homes there are now in the new FAA flight path. If I hadn't seen 5 homes listed on one block across the street from the southern end of Encanto Park, heard the noise overhead and felt the rumble in the ground for myself while out with clients, I'd not have a better perspective for why people might want to leave... Phoenix 85022 is the Moon Valley area. It also has a healthy supply of luxury homes around the Moon Valley Country club and the inventory is probably a little skewed because of it.

The next chart shows, single-family homes under $500K with the least inventory: (5/10/15)

Only 8 of the top 20 zip codes are completely outside the boundaries of the "Core".

Even in the "Move Up" category, the trend is similar. This is what this chart looks like for the homes from $400-800K in zip codes with the least inventory: (5/12/15)

Still, 10 of the 20 homes on this list, fall within the "Core".

The interesting part is that even for luxury homes, or those priced over $1M, the same holds true- the further into the core that the home is, the more likely it is to sell and have a lower "Days of Inventory", this is with 1 exception, the Town of Paradise Valley, or 85253. (5/9/15)

The 1st 7 homes on this list fall into the "Core". After that, the days on market rises sharply above 1 year of inventory. All of the remaining zip codes, except 85253 are outside of the "Core". Paradise Valley is also one of the most expensive in the US and likely has the highest concentration of homes over $1M in the state. In 2014, Paradise Valley was the 127th priciest zip code in the US with an median home price of over $1.7M. Scottsdale, 85262 ranked at #391 at just over $1M for the median home price.

For a slightly different perspective on this chart, consider this map below of these 16 zip codes shaded in green to demonstrate just where they are:

All of the homes at or under a 1-year supply, with the exception of Paradise Valley which has the most inventory on this chart, are all inside of this area too. Given that our median sales price for the ARMLS area is $210,000 and rising, there has to be a reason that these zip codes are performing so much better than their luxury cousins on the outside.

Many of these homes in the areas on the outside are secondary homes- vacation, corporate or otherwise. They are further away from various area amenities. When you're spending $1M or more on a 2nd (or 3rd and so on) home, you may not be as concerned with having to drive an extra 10 min to go get some groceries, if your sole purpose is to be on vacation and/or you're seeking solitude or beautiful views.

On the flip side, if you're buying a luxury primary home particularly one in the center of town, it's probably because it will put you MUCH closer to the things you spend most of your time doing. People are still choosing to live closer to the place where they work and spend their time out of work for lots of reasons- shorter commute, less money spent on gas, closer proximity to dining, shopping, recreation, etc., the things that matter to them. All of these factors contribute to a better quality of life. And when you have the money to buy a luxury home, maximizing your quality of life is probably at the top of the list of priorities.

The trend I've seen over the last several years from the start of the recovery is that buyers at all price points want to live closer to the things that matter to them. Unless it's a vacation home, my clients are all going in droves to centrally located areas with lots of amenities that are close to where they work and to family. I think this is a trend that will continue and homes in the "Core" will continue to see stable values and healthy appreciation. After all, how far do YOU want to live from the things that matter to YOU most??

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Q1 2015 Phoenix & Scottsdale Real Estate Market Recap

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Check out my BRAND NEW listing in the McCormick Ranch Area!!

(THIS HOME IS NOT FOR SALE; IT SOLD IN 2015)

Print:

Featured Amenities- 7038 N Via De La Campana

Property Flyer- 7038 N Via de la Campana

Please call/text or email me for more details about this home or to inquire about previewing it.

Happy Earth Day!!

My Q1 2015 Recap for Phoenix real estate, broke down how our market shifted in a big way from being balanced (not very exciting) to increased demand and sales activity. Year to date, closed dollar volume is the 3rd best year we've seen since The Cromford Report started collecting this data. The only years that did better? The 2 that sandwiched the peak of our market before the crash (2005 & 2006). Higher prices are usually a lagging indicator of market improvement, but that also may seems to be following the trend. As of 4/21/14, the Cromford Report noted:

"We are now seeing a surge in the closed sales price per square foot - $135.20 for the period March 21 to April 20 across all areas & types. This is a full 3.1% higher than a month ago. Normal sales are averaging $137.63 per sq. ft. and this is up 2.4%. The latest figures are helped by a $6.8 million dollar equestrian estate home in Scottsdale which closed yesterday at just under $1,000 per sq. ft.

We are likely to stay in the $135 to $140 range for the next couple of months, but the real test is whether we can stay above $135 during the third quarter, which is typically the weakest of the year for average price per sq. ft."

That's pretty good. I've stated before that appreciation is historically about 1-4% per year. We saw that in the last month alone... I have new listings coming to market in Scottsdale shortly in very high-demand areas. Because the Sellers are choosing to prepare their homes prior to listing, we're watching the market to set the list price right before each goes active in ARMLS. This equates to us revising the asking price UP almost every time we look because of new closed & pending sales indicating higher comps AND due to the lack of new inventory coming on the market.

Buyers- sitting the fence or worse yet waiting for the next "smokin' deal" to come along, please don't hold your breath... Get your pre-qual letters set, brush up on the activity in your target area and be ready to RUN, not walk to the next new listing that meets your criteria before Sellers start to realize what's happening.

Sellers- keep putting out a good product and don't get greedy yet. Buyers will bend over backwards for really fair & ethical sellers who stick to selling a well-maintained & well-priced home. If you've just read the good news and decide to raise the asking price on your already listed homes, DON'T. If they aren't willing to pay what you're asking today, unless there's nothing else out there, they probably don't want to buy if for more.

Buyers know when you're overpriced and will just wait for you to lower the price or offer you what they think the market will bear. If you even price it a little below market... behold! You're likely to get multiple offers and a final sales price above asking. Counter-intuitive, right? It's been this way for years.

Timing & knowledge now are the difference between higher, strategically-optimized Seller profits and calculated Buyers' savings from knowing 1. where prices are rising and 2. which loan programs benefit them most: i.e., special programs for Physicians, Attorneys & CPAs, 5% down loans, loans for people with tarnished credit & more!

If you're a Seller OR Buyer with questions about what's going on in YOUR area, call me for the cold, hard numbers that don't lie. Be well!

Related:

Q1 2015 Phoenix & Scottsdale Real Estate Market Recap

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Phoenix Pending Sales Still Rising in Early 2015

Monthly Market Updates

Q1 2015 is already done. Across Maricopa County, many cities in the Phoenix Metro are seeing dramatic improvements over the last 12 months. I've broken down the finer points of what's happening in our market so you can know exactly what's going on without needing to go very far. Here's how it shakes out (look for key info in bold words):

Who:

Here's a breakdown of the buyers who are driving our market.

(4/6/15)

• Sales to owner occupiers are up 23% over last year
• Sales to investors are down 13%
• Sales to second-home owners are up 9%
• Sales of new homes are up 8%
• Sales of new homes to owner occupiers are up 10%
• Sales of new homes to investors are down 48%
• Sales of existing homes are up 18%
• Sales of existing homes to owner occupiers are up 25%
• Sales of existing homes to investors are down 12%
• Sales of existing homes to primary residence owner occupiers are up 26%

(source The Cromford Report)

In years prior, from about 2009 on, investors represented a huge portion of closed sales transactions. We knew they left roughly in 2012 in search of better profit margins as our market's property values started recovering. But even today, their presence in the market is decreasing. Overall investor sales are down 13%

On the flip side of that, primary owners are making a large portion of the increase in sales. Owner-occupied purchases are up 23%. Second home buyers are also improving the market- sales to 2nd home owners are up 9%.

What:

The market is shifting definitively in the favor of sellers. Over the last month or so, I've been talking about the increase in pending sales and actual closed sales. Here is the tally for the month of March, as compared with March 2014. If you'll recall, last spring was very lackluster and the market had seen little improvement (with exception) until late last year. Now, it's quite a different tune.

(4/8/15) Here are the price ranges which have growth dollar volume the most between March 2014 and March 2015:

1. $350K-$400K - up 46%
2. $300K-$350K - up 40%
3. $500K-$600K - up 40%
4. $275K-$300K - up 28%
5. $200K-$225K - up 26%
6. $800K-$1M - up 26%
7. $250K-$275K - up 26%
8. $175K-$200K - up 24%
9. $2M-$3M - up 23%
10. $600K-$800K - up 21%
11. $400K-$500K - up 21%

(source The Cromford Report)

Look at the change in sales volume! The majority of the price ranges had an increase in sales volume by 20+%. This is significant! In fact, the only price ranges missing are under $175K (largely due to a lack of inventory) and between $1M-2M. There is a huge supply of homes between $1-2M. Last month there were 228 new listings between $1-2M, in 2014, 205 new listings. In 2013, there were only 194. As a whole, on March 28 there were 1,121 listings between $1-2M. At the end of March 2014, there were 1,009 and there were 776 in 2013. Want an opportunity? With little demand and deep supply (up 44.5%), buying a home in this range is probably a good bet...

On the flip side, if you're buying a home under $175K, there is less and less to choose from. At the end of March 2015, there were 3,606 active listings in Maricopa County. At the end of March 2014, there were 6,091. At the end of March 2012, there were 3,914. Sellers in this price range, will want to pay close attention to the time of year and who the likely buyer is to see how to proceed. Essentially, the increase of inventory over the last year has already been absorbed by market demand and then some.

So, if you're thinking about selling and have an asking price between $300K-400K and $500K-600K, you probably will have lots of reason to celebrate! At this point, lots of sellers have good reason to downright happy! If you feel bad for those sellers with homes in the middle of this price point sandwich, don't. I have 2 homes in Scottsdale (85254 & McCormick Ranch) that I will list toward the end of this month in this price range that already have buyers clamoring to get in and see them in the absence of other options.

Where:

This chart shows which major cities in the Phoenix Metro area are seeing an improvement, as measured by the Cromford Market Index. There are some big gains occurring.

If you compare 4/9/15 to 3/26/15, the previous chart, you can see a continued acceleration in the market index, which tells us how "hot" or "cold" our market is.

Between 90-110 is a balanced market with 100 being the middle point. Below 90 would be approaching a buyer's market, with 85 a declared "Buyer's Market". Above 110 approaches a "Seller's Market" with an index of 130 being declared a "frenzied" Seller's Market. You remember those... multiple offers in hours or days of going on the market, waiving or shortening inspections and/or appraisals

The majority of the 14 major cities in our area are "Seller's Markets, except Buckeye, Queen Creek, Goodyear, Maricopa and Scottsdale. AND there are 4 Frenzy markets (Glendale, Avondale, Mesa & Tempe)?? Considering that of these major cities, Scottsdale also boasts the highest number of luxury homes... many likely falling into the crowded $1M-2M space, so this may not be that too hard to fathom.

If you're curious just how far we've come in a year, take a look at this chart:

All but 2 of the 29 cities in our Metro area were balanced or in "Buyer's Market" territory...

When:

Despite the recalibration of Cromford Report stats after altering how pending sales with UCB status are viewed in our market, it became easier to see the trend that was taking place.

For a better "big picture" perspective:

The index didn't go much above or below 100 for all of 2014, but look at the change.

• On 1/1/15, it was 107.5.
• On 2/1/15, it was 110.9.
• By 3/1/15, it was at 112.5.
• By 4/1/15, it was at 122.9.
• As of 4/13, that number is now 126.1.

The shift started out subtle, but it is now undeniable. Metro Phoenix (Maricopa County) is in a "Seller's Market" (threshold above 110) AND is flirting with being a "Frenzied" market (threshold above 130).

Why:

In one word? Demand. Look at the chart below and see how the number of pending sales have increased over 2014, Specifically between the ranges of $150K-600K. This is the bulk of the "entry-level" and "move-up" market. They are currently driving the growth we're seeing.

(source: The Cromford Report)

Buyers are feeling less hesitant about jobs and their ability to finance a home. Younger buyers are coming into the market realizing that paying rent isn't always the best option. Buyers coming off of short sales, foreclosures and bankruptcies are coming to the market and people who had put off selling or buying a home for various reasons are deciding they are ready to take the plunge.

How & the Summary:

Theoretically, entry-level buyers allow the move-up buyers to be able to move on the next home in their stage of life, and so on. It's a "trickle up" theory. So now as our spring goes on and we watch inventory start to evaporate, but there are still buyers out there with a mission, this is where things start to get interesting. There's a fine balance between Buyers continuing to search for homes and staying undeterred by things like higher interest rates, the ability to afford a home and live somewhere they feel is desirable and the time that Sellers realize they can ask what they want for their home and still have buyers willing to pay their price. As long as this delicate dance keeps going, we have an active market. If either of those 2 sides break down due to external factors we'll start to see a shift followed by a new trend.

If the supply (decreasing) and demand (increasing) keep on their current track, before long we'll see prices start to respond to upward pressure. This will make things very interesting for both buyers and sellers alike.

Keep in mind, real estate is hyper local. If you'd like to know just how these numbers affect you or your plans to buy or sell a home, please text/call or email me for detailed snapshot and I'll get you the information you need to be dangerous!

Stay cool It's getting warm out there!!

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Phoenix Pending Sales Still Rising in Early 2015

After much progress, we raised the drop ceiling, added recessed lights, refinished the cabinets in a  "greige"  & added crown molding, refinished the island's butcher block top & painted the cabinet a contrasting off white, installed new granite counters, a new faucet, new hinges, and new appliances including: stainless steel microwave/oven combo, new beverage fridge and smooth cooktop. The brick herringbone backsplash is not complete, but is getting close and the under-counter lighting, will be complete when the additional recessed lights are connected.

Now, we've got to pick pendants that will hang over the island. The goal was to create a very neutral, transitional space that would complement a variety of decors. However, the pendants hanging over the butcher block island with breakfast bar will be the "jewelry" of the kitchen. Which one should we pick??

Choices for Island Pendant

Please tell my seller what you think via email, text or reply from my Facebook Page!

The goal: a fresh, modern & neutral space with broad appeal to buyers. Let us know by 12P tomorrow (4/5/15) so we can order those pendants and get them installed ASAP!!

Here's the recent progression of our work:

[gallery columns="1" size="medium" link="file" ids="3992,3991,3990,3989"]

Still to do: replace the window (again!), cabinet touch ups, finish the wet bar, finish the lighting & LOTS of other little details.

The End Result:

One. Happy. Seller. The paint was barely dry and the photos barely processed when we listed this house for sale at $490K on 5/22/15- Memorial Day weekend. We had showings immediately an open house with 40+ groups of visitors through and were able to pick up 2 cash offers by 5/26. We closed the sale on 6/29/15 for $480K cash.  The house actually closed before her bill was due and payable... not bad.

Several others got the same treatment. If you'd like to know you can have similar success, call/text/email me and we can work up a customized plan just for you and your homes!

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5442 E Acoma Dr, Scottsdale AZ 85254

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Small Improvements= Big Impact on Your Bottom Line

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We've been under construction since, Friday March 9th. It hasn't been easy and it has at times just been tedious. Here's what can happen at times when renovating a kitchen...

[gallery link="file" ids="4031,4030,4029,4038,4027,4026,4025,4024,4023,4022,4020,4021,4019,4017,4016,4015,4014,4013,4012,4010,4009,4008,4005,4004,4003,4002,4001,4000"]

Some of my favorite moments during this project:

• The 2 guys who hung the drywall & reinstalled the upper cabinets tried (unsuccessfully) to convince me that they had hung the cabinets & did the drywall properly, despite the fact that I showed them with THEIR level that the cabinets were not. Both sides of upper cabinets actually sloped toward the middle, over the sink. The contractors didn't frame around the heavy metal HVAC ducts to secure it and just drywalled right over the top.
  • They then tried to explain that when you hang cabinets that you have to line them up with the ceiling which is frequently not level (TRUE), so everything will be unlevel. However, cabinets are hung on the studs in the wall and are completely independent of what is above them.
  • The crown molding they hung around the cabinets was installed so poorly that it actually called attention to the fact that the cabinets were not level. The molding also didn't run flush between the soffit and top of the upper cabinets because it wasn't built so the width across the entire span was consistently the same measurement.
  • After nearly 4 hours of arguing about it, and countless insignificant "fixes", I made one call to the construction project manager and sent a few pics. Needless to say, they had to pull it all out and start over... I can assure you, I may look pretty stupid in my high heels walking through a construction site, but I really do know what I'm talking about.
• Said contractor also apparently installs tile... sadly, he didn't do so hot there either. He used a few tiles on the floor that were were actually the wrong tiles. Didn't really match at all. Add to the fact that they started with the tile first- before the paint, before the granite... before anything else really. They swore up an down they could and would cover the tile so that the tiles & the grout would be protected... last I heard, they needed to regrout the floors because it was "dirty" from the construction... [DOH!]
• Finally, the herringbone backsplash was installed really wonky at first. He tried (again unsuccessfully) to convince me that he had set the backsplash tile correctly, despite the fact that the homeowner wanted it set on a 45-degree angle. It was really about 30-35 degrees, so he pulled it out and started over and did it on the 45. However, instead of using spacers, he just slapped it all up there. The result you ask? Disastrous! Between some bricks, there was easily a half-inch gap and between others, you couldn't slide a piece of paper in between them. So, it all had to be ripped out and started over. [sigh] Fortunately, the new guys are GOOD!

I have to say, the construction project manager is AH-MAZING!!! He has been very responsive despite the fact that at any time I call him, he could be in Buckeye, S. Scottsdale or someplace on the Westside. He's a keeper!

More to come!

The End Result:

One. Happy. Seller. The paint was barely dry and the photos barely processed when we listed this house for sale at $490K on 5/22/15- Memorial Day weekend. We had showings immediately an open house with 40+ groups of visitors through and were able to pick up 2 cash offers by 5/26. We closed the sale on 6/29/15 for $480K cash.  The house actually closed before her bill was due and payable... not bad.

Several others got the same treatment. If you'd like to know you can have similar success, call/text/email me and we can work up a customized plan just for you and your homes!

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Camille's Monthly Market Updates

From February to March, we saw a huge jump in the Cromford Market Index. This index takes the temperature of our real estate market and says how "hot" or "cold" the market really is. It seems odd to me, but at the time I didn't question it. Here's what happened:

Back in December 2012 when short sales were the norm and it took multiple buyers/contracts to actually complete the sale of a home, the UCB status (Under Contract- accepting Backup offers) was created to be able to keep marketing a home to solicit back-up offers while noting that the home actually had an active purchase contract. However, as short sales decreased and there was less concern that a listing would no longer need many back-up options to sell, agents didn't change the way they reported the listing status. Then, instead of changing the status to pending when a contract was accepted which would remove the listing from MLS & syndicated sites like Zillow & Trulia, agents began to use the status infinitely from contract acceptance to closing to maintain their online visibility.

As a result, this skewed key statistics and artificially inflated the amount of time it took to sell a home, the amount of available inventory and ultimately the pending sales index, a key indicator of market trends. This chart they published on 2/27/15 does a better job of showing how UCB is being abused:

(source: The Cromford Report)

At the end of February, the Cromford Report economists & analysis took a good hard look at the numbers and realized that the pending sales statistics did not seem representative of the changes going on. At that time, they recalibrated the data all the way back to December 2012 to account for likely reality of the UCB status.

In Scottsdale alone, 22% of UCB listings should have been in "Pending" status, but were marked "UCB" and thus worsened the perspective of the market for sellers. The real story is that we've been in relatively balanced territory since before Q4 2014, but after the recalibration, it became much easier to see the market legitimately changing:

• On 2/28/15, the Cromford Index stood at 112.4.
• By 3/31/15, it was at 122.6.
• As of 4/13, that number is now 126.1.

Our market in Metro Phoenix (Maricopa County) is flirting with being a "Frenzied" market threshold at 130.